The quarter finals
of the ongoing Euros in Poland and Ukraine have been settled. This editor got
all the predictions right with minor precision. A one nil victory for Portugal
from a set piece was the prediction for Portugal versus Czech. It ended one nil
but Ronaldo’s goal was not from a set piece as predicted. The Germans truly got
a victory over the Greeks. A match that was watched by Angela Merkel to ensure
her hard line measures for the Greeks were understood back home. Spain did not
need any Spanish-Fly to erect a penetration past a French side that offered
very little resistance. The pick of the quarterfinals had to be undoubtedly
Italy against England. England favoured by the media back home after Roy
Hodgson had convinced them, he had built a team that was hard to beat were
subjected to a night of Italian dominance. Italy got the win predicted by yours
truly from a shootout.
Ahead of the
semi-final fixtures between Iberian neighbours Spain and Portugal, there is
talk of the Real Madrid and Barcelona rivalry being reignited. It will be a
feisty affair. At the last meeting between these two in a friendly match last
year, Portugal came out convincingly on top. Four nil it ended in their favour.
This is however no friendly, it is a competitive fixture with the right to play
in the final at stake. Spain boasts the best defence in the tournament having
conceded only that goal by Di Natalie in the opener. They also possess the best
midfield with passes completed and highest possession statistics. Tactically,
Del Bosque has preferred to play without a recognized striker. It has worked
thus far as Spain has never failed to score.
Portugal on the
other hand have always conceded except against the Czech who should not have
made it to the second round (no disrespect intended). Their plays have been
centred around Christiano Ronaldo who is not only their playmaker but quasi
target man. He holds the record in this competition of being the player to have
hit the woodwork the most, a record 6 times; thud. With Spain expected to
dominate possession, the Selecao must sharpen their counter attacks and take
the chances they will create. The key to playing a counter-attacking game is
being organised defensively, and eliminating the nervousness that will surface
when in scoring positions. USA was able to overcome Spain by this method and it
might happen again should Nani, Meireless and Ronaldo live up to the billing.
Somewhere in the
stands, a certain prominent Portuguese will be seated and wishing he were in
charge of his side just for tonight, while another notable Spaniard will be
watching his team take on their Iberian neighbours. We can only wish they watch
the match side by side, that will be another match should Jose Mourinho seat
beside Josep Guardiola in the stands.
Will C. Ronaldo live
up to the billing consistently in big matches? Will Del Bosque keep faith in
his pseudo-striker tactic? Will Llorente or Jesus Navas come off the bench to
do the trick or perhaps we are in for another game to be decided by penalties?
I pity some women if that happens.
Spain will score
early and then score a late goal to kill off the Portuguese. Or perhaps it
might end one nil in favour of Portugal. No, this editor won’t predict this
tie.
The juicier fixture
here is the Germany versus Italy clash. Germany boasts the best attack in the
tournament thus far winning the last four and scored a total of 9 goals. The
speed and dynamism of the Germans make them the most attractive side in the
competition. They exploit the wings as well as control the middle and there is
no denying them a goal. However, they are not without weakness, they have
always conceded with exception of the first game against Portugal. They even
let in two against Greece. Bastian Schweinstiger their playmaker will be influential
if he can shake off his injury worries and look to dominate the Italians. Mario
Gomez, Reus and Podolski are all wonderful players to watch when they attack
and if things get hard, Lahm can come up to shoot at Buffon’s goal. On paper,
Germany are clear favourites.
Italy are no
pushovers. They have drawn Spain and Croatia, seen off the Irish and though
dominating the English failed to convert their chances. What really is the
strength of the Italian side? Is it the flair of their midfielders? Is it the
unpredictability of their build-up or is it the usual organisation of their
defence inspired by ageless Gianluigi Buffon? Perhaps it is the eccentricity of
Mario Balotelli?
Italy will also be
relying on their historical superiority over the Germans. In the 30 meets
between the sides, the Azzurri have come out on top 14 times, the Germans 7
while 9 of those ended in draws. Indeed the last time was a one-all draw while
the last competitive fixture ended two-nil by Italy over the Germans. Prandeli
will wish he can field that ‘good record’ against the Germans. ‘Good record’
goes past Bastian; he beats Lahm and rounds Neur, what a goal for Italy by ‘Good
record’.
Italy’s real
strength is their tactical guile. That will be up against German efficiency. Germany
will no doubt come into the match full of confidence and try to bring on their
fast paced build up, yet the Italians can absorb pressure, slow down the tempo
and exploit the frailties in that German defence. Poor finishing has been
Italy’s undoing and might affect them. If Germany scores first, Italy will have
to go all out in search of an equalizer and thus expose them to German
blitzkrieg. So Italy must be at their tactical best, Balotelli will have to
take his chances and if he can’t Di Natalie will. The Italians even know how to
play a sneak-in-striker in Nocerino (endless list of guile). Will Die
Manschaaft remain calm in the event that Italy steals possession and slows the
tempo to their advantage? The German Machines have an advantage for they have
had one more day of rest compared to Italy who had to play an additional 30
minutes.
Mario Gomez, Lucas
Podolski and Klose will be very alert to exploit any lapse in Italy’s
concentration and they must do it within 15 minutes and then ensure they do not
concede lousy set pieces for that man Andrea Pirlo will be lurking and
salivating at the opportunity to either cross one in or fire in two himself.
Italy will defy the
odds for two reasons: tactical superiority over German efficiency that in some
cases is inflexible and perhaps, the theory that Italy must do well after every
scandal at home. Germany on the other hand will look to defy the odds that
favours Italy historically and prove that their form is no fluke. Editor’s
prediction: Germany 1: Italy 2.
An Italy Spain final
will be spectacular. A Germany Spain final will be a remake of the 2008 final.
A Portugal Italy final mind you is also on the cards or perhaps a Portugal
Germany final. Whatever happens, enjoy the best of European football.
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