OBASANJO’S EPISTLE TO PRESIDENT BUHARI AND MATTERS ARISING
News of ex-president Obasanjo’s letter to Buhari has not
waned. As of the time of this writing, Obasanjo is still trending on Twitter
and the contents of his letter is shaping the political dialogue of Nigeria.
How can one man be such an influence as to completely alter the discuss? That
would be the subject of another piece. The Obasanjo brand is indeed consistent
with his letters in the past 3 decades. A quick tour of history would remind
the reader that
1. He had
written a shorter letter to president Shagari after which incumbent president
Buhari struck.
2. He
also wrote one to Buhari which was not quite popular but soon saw the end of
that regime.
3. He went
ahead to write twice to military president Ibrahim Babanginda (IBB)
4. Obasanjo
would give a public lecture in London which was a rebuke to Abacha’s junta.
5. He
also wrote Yar Adua just before his demise.
6. Goodluck
Jonathan was not spared with the warning: Before it is too late.
President Earnest Shonekan and General Abdulsalami Abubakar
did not get any epistles of Obasanjo as the former’s stay was short lived while
he was in prison during Gen. Abdulsalami’s tenure.
Key Points from the current epistle can be
summed thus:
Buhari’s weakness in the knowledge of the economy is
reason for Nigeria’s economic decline and rising poverty. Allowing wittingly
and unwittingly the herdsmen issue to go sour and messy. Nepotism bordering on
clannishness and inability to bring discipline on his court. He also touches
Buhari’s inability to understand the dynamics of internal politics causing
further divisions in the land. Not done, Obasanjo highlights Buhari’s blame
games and buck passing disposition. Dr. Obasanjo went on to advice Buhari to go
home and rest as Nigeria needs to move on and move forward.
Most striking part is that he altogether denounces the
APC and nails the coffin on the president’s tenure by saying: “Let this
administration and its party agree that they have done what they are capable of
doing and that is not good enough for us. Nigeria deserves and urgently needs
better than what they have given or what we know they are capable of giving. To
ask them to give more will be unrealistic and will only sentence Nigeria to a
prison term of four years if not destroy it beyond the possibility of an early
recovery and substantial growth.”
That had a gavel sound. In order words: MENE MENE TEKEL
UR PHARSIN. Just before the last elections, some well meaning Nigerians had
urged the electorate to consider Buhari’s antecedents and refuse to give him
the mandate. But the anti-Jonathan sentiment was fairly stronger than that warning.
Jonathan was generally agreed to be a good man but a weakling. He had permitted
brazen looting of the common wealth and seemed indifferent about it. It was for
these reasons that Buhari seemed the appropriate replacement. He was strong
where Jonathan was weak, he had little tolerance for corruption and many felt his
military experience would quickly resolve the Boko Haram insurgency.
Present day history would prove that Nigerians made a
mistake. Matter of fact, the only thing Obasanjo’s letter fails to do is
directly apologize for helping Nigerians make that mistake. One thing is clear
from the present letter: Buhari is not
knowledgeable enough to lead. It is not a case for academic knowledge but
pragmatic knowledge on systems, processes and people. Of course, this can be
helped by having a good educational background but Nigerians preferred to
recognize Buhari’s NEPA bill as his academic qualification to hold the highest
office in the land.
Not only is president Buhari grossly ill equipped in the
knowledge space, he is quite unwilling to improve himself in that regard. Compared
to Obasanjo who despite being older has continued to improve himself
academically and by keeping the company of intellectuals.
Dr. Obasanjo had hoped that president Buhari would hire
technocrats to manage the economy but fails to see that it requires knowledge
to hire the right people. Buhari does not have this knowledge hence he resorts
to nepotism bordering on clannishness. Make no mistake, the present cabinet was
chosen on the basis of party entitlement and settlement for their part in
helping Buhari fulfil his presidential ambition. Ignorance is the undoing of
any man who wishes to be progressive. President Buhari’s ignorance and
unwillingness to improve in that regard was made evident to the entire world
when he addressed the chancellor of Germany as the “president of West Germany”.
If Buhari is brought suddenly today to that same audience without prior
briefing from his handlers, I can bet he’d say the same things with more
assertiveness. To lead in the 21st century, one needs knowledge and that
knowledge is changing rapidly. It is changing faster than Buhari can keep up
with. Perhaps it is the reason that justifies the advice of the ex-president
asking Buhari not to seek another term.
At the last election, the virtue words thrown about were:
“integrity and strength”. Today, it is “capacity.” The reason is clear: the
incumbent has neither capacity to learn the dynamics of Nigeria, our economy
and internal wrangling. As if these shortcomings of the president are not already
too glaring, Buhari’s government has no vision, rejects calls to restructure
Nigeria and even dares to accuse the people of lacking patience in his New
Year’s Day address.
PARTY’S RESPONSE
Expectedly, the APC has responded. In my opinion, the APC’s
response is deserving of commendation. It admits that the party has issues and
commits to improving itself and appreciates the spirit of the latter. The PDP which
was first to respond agreed that the letter was correct on the parts where it
condemns the president but that there is no need for a third force as the PDP
remains the most viable alternative to the failing APC.
GOING FORWARD
Obasanjo’s letter agrees with what eminent Nigerians like
Cardinal Okogie, Prof. Wole Soyinka, Pastor Tunde Bakare and even Aisha Buhari
is saying: Buhari is incompetent, and cannot provide direction.
Dr. Obasanjo’s recent thesis on how not be a president only
agrees with prevailing public opinion on the president but fails to offer meaningful
solutions going forward. His call for a non-partisan coalition for Nigeria is
neither a solution nor a direction. There are myriads of issues that needs be
addressed and now is the time to address them, but Obasanjo is still stuck in
preaching about a movement to which all Nigerians can belong. We already belong
to Nigeria.
This is where the letter fails. The assessment of Buhari,
his term, his party, the opposition is frankly speaking accurate. His advice to
Buhari not to run is as beautiful as Buhari’s daughter Zahra. Nigeria needs a
new vision. We are nearly 200 million people strong and cannot have our future lean
any longer on the capacity or integrity and discipline of one man. Today, we
see all kinds of “good men” vying to be the next “horse rider” leading an
infantry when instead we should have armies of cavalry with each division capable
of meeting its objectives.
2019 ELECTIONS
The next elections must be issue based not ethnicity /
personality driven. Key national issues are: Restructuring (how and to what
extent). Insecurity and the economy are the other two. Candidates and parties
must start now to look into these issues with a view to formulating policies
from which the electorate may choose. Die hard Buhari fans and supporters are
pushing out statistics in favour of the ignorant general. It is a pity that while
Buhari cannot personally explain these statistics yet many buharideens would
have us believe that Obasanjo is wrong because of his attention seeking nature.
One thing is clear: Nigeria has been run for too long by the pre-independence
generation and they have failed to provide a common vision nor created the
environment for mutual coexistence and this is the reason, our parties must not
make the mistake of “zoning” candidacy to the “north” in order to defeat an
already relegated Buhari. The parties must rather zone the candidacy to young
people. I suggest people younger than 50.
It is necessary to warn against voting persons no matter
how virtuous. It is better to vote based on policy positions and issues at
stake. Both Jonathan and Buhari are good virtuous men in their own rights but
failed because of the weakness of their policy thrusts more than their personal virtues would permit them.
THE THIRD FORCE
I like the idea of a third force only where it is
policy/ideologically and perhaps generation driven. I fail to see how people
from the same APC/PDP would go to form another party and present that to be the
third force on a rescue mission. Then sensing the momentum or upon winning
would receive old converts and we’d be all over in the same situation as the
one we left. Then we will need a fourth force. At this rate, we’ll need a new
force every election year. May the forces forging these forces develop brains!
There are now more than 68 parties in Nigeria. They will
not all field presidential candidates. A situation where the presidential
ballot is longer than 5 would be most unhealthy for us all especially if Buhari
refuses to heed Obasanjo’s advice. Should Buhari win the APC primaries and
contests the election there are some postulations that indicate he might just
get enough votes to put us in his jail of incompetence, ignorance and nepotism for
another 4 years. Some people are actually praying for Buhari to run again in
order that he should be disgraced out of office. Well, I urge us to pray
against that prayer as Buhari’s disgrace would not lead us to the Nigeria we
desire. Historically, Buhari has shown that he is incapable of conceding
defeats and only God knows if a 2019 defeat would be his chance to prove his prophecy of the
"blood of the dogs and the baboons".
The parties must rally and form meaningful coalitions/mergers
especially ones that are ideology driven not interest directed. Importantly, these 3rd forces must be open to
mass participation thus bringing the era of god fathers and stomach
infrastructure politics to an end.
Conclusively, the advantage of democracy is the ability
make changes at predetermined intervals. While the right to choose includes the
right to choose wrong, we as a people must not repeat the same mistakes and
expect better results.
Thank you for reading. God bless you.
God bless and long live the Federal Republic of Nigeria.
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